Egypt Security Sector Report
This week’s newsletter highlights the evolving situation in Gaza, the Red Sea, and Egypt’s strengthening military cooperation with South Korea. It also explores Egypt’s political landscape, including the regime’s backing of a new party, as well as a paper I co-authored examining how dominant perceived threats shape the coup-proofing strategies of the Turkish and Egyptian militaries.
📁 Coup-proofing Strategies in Turkey and Egypt
I co-authored a paper with scholar Berfin Necimoğlu, exploring how dominant perceived threats shape the coup-proofing strategies of the Turkish and Egyptian militaries.
📁 Palestine
Trump insisted Tuesday that the US has the authority to “take” Gaza and suggested that neighboring countries should absorb the Palestinians currently living there, making the remarks alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II in the Oval Office. The comments added pressure on the latter, who praised Trump’s efforts for peace while refraining from addressing the proposal. Abdullah said the two countries should consult with other Arab nations, including Egypt. “I think the point is, how do we make this work in a way that is good for everybody,” Abdullah said. “Obviously we have to look at the best interests of the United States, of the people in the region, especially to my people of Jordan.”
Abdullah added that Trump “is looking at Egypt coming to present that plan. As I said, we will be in Saudi Arabia to discuss how we should work with the president and with the United States… Let’s wait until the Egyptians can come and present it to the president.”
However, as soon as Abdullah left the White House, he tweeted, asserting:Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Tuesday night, saying Cairo aspires to cooperate with the Trump administration for a just peace in the region, but it also plans to propose a comprehensive strategy for Gaza’s reconstruction while opposing any displacement of its residents.
Sisi will not travel to Washington for talks at the White House if the agenda includes Trump’s plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza, two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Wednesday for talks. Israel’s Defense Minister vowed that “all hell will break loose” on Hamas if it failed to free hostages this weekend as planned, while Egypt and Qatar intensified efforts to save the Gaza ceasefire deal.
An Egyptian government official told al-Ahram on Wednesday that
it is “very clear” for policy-makers in Cairo that Trump is not going to settle for a refusal of his plan, which is being pushed hard by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and the leaders of the extreme religious right both in the US and Israel.
In a phone call on Wednesday, Sisi and King Abdullah called for immediate Gaza reconstruction without the displacement of the Palestinians, and a halt to Israeli operations in the West Bank.
Bulldozers, heavy machinery, and prefab homes were amassed by the Rafah Crossing on Thursday, awaiting mobilization into Gaza to start the reconstruction plan, but have not been allowed to enter the Strip due to Israeli pressure.
Since the start of the ceasefire, over 6,000 aid trucks have entered Gaza from Egypt, according to the state-run Nile News TV on Thursday—additionally, North Sinai Governor Maj. Gen. Khaled Megawer told the media that Egypt received 12,000 wounded and sick Gazans, including 2,500 children, since the ceasefire began on 19 January.
Egypt and Qatar’s mediation efforts have succeeded in averting a potential breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, despite escalating tensions, Egyptian news outlets reported Thursday. Hamas confirmed its commitment to maintaining the ceasefire and facilitating prisoner exchanges but highlighted concerns over Israeli violations of the truce.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday the US was eager to hear new proposals by Arab states on Gaza, as he prepared to depart for a regional visit.
Saudi Arabia is leading a regional initiative to counter Trump’s proposed Gaza plans, focusing on developing an alternative approach. Discussions are set to take place in Riyadh, involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE, with suggestions including a Gulf-backed reconstruction fund and efforts to marginalize Hamas, sources told Reuters. These discussions will take place on 20 February, one week before the Arab League emergency meeting in Cairo, a source told AFP.
The GIS-run al-Qahera News TV quoted on Friday an Egyptian official source denying a report—published by MEE—alleging Egypt has imposed fees, starting from $20,000, on the entry of aid and commercial trucks into Gaza.
24 Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails arrived in Cairo via the Rafah Crossing on Saturday to be deported.
Hamas has said it will not participate in the administration of Gaza in the upcoming phase, an Egyptian government source told al-Qahera News on Saturday.
Sisi met yesterday with the President of the World Jewish Congress, Ronald S. Lauder, joined by Hassan Rashad of the GIS, to discuss regional developments.
The Israeli military said yesterday it shot down a drone that was carrying weapons and crossed from Egypt into Israel.
