Egypt Security Sector Report
This week’s dispatch features reports on the business activities of Organi and the military, arms imports, EU greenwashing in Egypt, China’s growing presence in Egypt, the Suez Canal, and my perspective on the war of words between Egypt and Israel.
📁 Sisi’s Egypt Trapped in Inextricable Crises
An interview with Robert Springborg.
📁 Egypt-Israel War of Words
Since the start of the last Gaza War, there has been a “war of words” between Egypt and Israel, which has raised concerns and curiosity of some about whether the two countries were on the brink of actual war.
Last month, Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s Ambassador to the US, accused Egypt of building up its military presence in Sinai, creating bases for offensive purposes, and violating the 1979 Peace Treaty. Leiter made these remarks during a meeting with the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, just before Netanyahu met with Trump.
On 11 February, the Saudi/Emirati al-Arabiya aired a sensationalist report of a massive parade of the MOI’s Central Security Forces, which the channel claimed was real-time news of a security build-up in North Sinai.
The report was based on a propaganda video published two days earlier by the MOI. However, the actual footage used in the video was of a parade on Police Day in January and was not even filmed in Sinai [30.09923° N, 31.92654° E].
The Galaxy of Bots and Fake News
Across social media platforms, Egyptian fake accounts, pages, and YouTubers are painting an alternate reality, where Israel is preparing to invade Egypt, the GIS is engaged in spy wars and undercover operations Raafat el-Haggan style, the Egyptian military is amassing its troops to threaten Israel and conducting commando operations, etc.
And central to this narrative is the country’s strongman, Sisi, standing up to all sorts of cosmic conspiracies, supporting the Palestinians, and protecting Egypt’s sovereignty.
These propaganda efforts are not limited to cyberspace. The GIS-run media channels are full of regime publicists screaming day and night, warning Egyptians of the dangers lurking against their state, and seizing on anti-Egyptian content published by obscure Israeli websites or social media accounts to prove a war is imminent.
Paper Tiger
While tensions exist between Cairo and Tel Aviv over several issues, most notably the Gaza displacement plans, the only escalation the Egyptian regime could do is simply: propaganda, nothing more, nothing less.
Egypt was once a regional hegemon whose power has been steadily declining. It has become a beggar state, addicted to debt and dependent on continuous bailouts from international and regional donors—a process that had already started with Sadat and accelerated under Sisi’s rule.
The Egyptian military is a bloated, bureaucratic, and mediocre organization geared towards internal security and economic profiteering. Its ability to conduct conventional or counterinsurgency wars in its former spheres of influence has been largely exposed as hollow. Confronting an advanced Western-backed military power like Israel is out of the question.
Sinai
The issue of Sinai, in particular, exemplifies the drastic change in Egypt’s military ideology and national security doctrines after 1979. In 2005, Israel gave the green light for Mubarak to increase his army presence by 750 personnel, to secure the borders following Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
Two years later, the Egyptian army, in coordination with Israel, was a direct participant in the siege of Gaza, to punish its Hamas rulers. Such a siege has lasted for more than decade, with brief interruptions, causing an acute humanitarian disaster in the strip.
In 2011, Israel permitted the boosting of Egypt’s (militarized) police forces by an additional 1,000 soldiers to protect the gas pipeline.
One would think that if the Peace Treaty did not sit well with the officer corps, the treaty would be amended or annulled after the military seized power in 2013. However, the total opposite happened. The alliance between the Egyptian army and its Israeli counterpart has been cemented at an unprecedented level.
Since the 2013 coup, Israel has agreed to, if not encouraged, Cairo’s multiple requests to increase its troops in the peninsula. This, in effect, put the security annex to the Peace Treaty that demilitarized Sinai on hold. By 2018, the Egyptian forces deployed, with Israel’s permission, amounted to 88 battalions with 42,000 soldiers.
Moreover, Israeli officials and lobbyists repeatedly intervened on the Egyptian army’s behalf to unblock US military aid and facilitate arms sales.
Last but not least, for the first time in history, following the 2013 coup, the Egyptian military regime allowed the Israelis to conduct airstrikes in Sinai against alleged terror targets regularly.
Thus, any talk of Israel as an enemy in the Egyptian army’s strategic doctrines, or that the status of Sinai has been causing grievances, is a baseless misrepresentation of reality.
The Egyptian regime’s “tough stance” against the displacement of the Palestinians stems from genuine internal security concerns. The Palestinians have been the central radicalizing and politicizing factor for the Arab people since the Nakba.
Moreover, Gazans resettled in Egypt, as Sisi publicly stated, would not remain docile and resign to their fate. Instead, “Sinai would then become the base for operations against Israel, operations Egypt would have to face the consequences of.”
Business as Usual
The war of words is helpful for Sisi to shore up support for his regime, amid rising anger in society over economic conditions and draconian repression of any opposition.
However, on the ground, business is as usual.
The video of Leiter’s inflammatory comments about Sinai was quickly deleted from online platforms. World Jewish Congress President Ron Lauder rushed to meet Sisi to ease tensions and reaffirm diplomatic ties.
Sources on the ground in Sinai confirm there is little change regarding military presence. Not a single tank is stationed in Sinia without Israel’s permission and the monitoring of MFO. Egyptian troops watched Israel’s occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor during the war, and did nothing. When Israel killed Egyptian soldiers, Sisi’s regime sought to play down the shooting, saying it was a “minor incident” and had “no political significance.”
Although the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced on 12 May 2024 its “intention to officially intervene in support of South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice,” it never acted on this announcement and never intervened in the case. Even more, to this day, Egypt has never commented on the ICJ arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.
Business ties continued to grow amidst the genocide and the verbal rows between Cairo and Tel Aviv. Egypt is dependent on Israeli gas imports for its electricity grid, and plans to increase its imports by 58% by mid-2025.