Egypt Security Sector Report
In this week’s dispatch, I cover a wide range of Egypt-related developments across the region, from ongoing political and security challenges in Gaza, Libya, and the Horn of Africa to the latest updates on arms imports, cybersecurity threats, militarization of civil service and society, Organi’s expanding business empire, and Egypt’s economic woes. I also review Maher Hamoud’s book, which examines the power of business and military elites and their influence on Egyptian media.
📁 Book Review: The Political Economy of Egyptian Media
I reviewed Maher Hamoud’s book on business and military elite power and communication after 2011 in Egypt.
📁 Palestine
Interviewed on Sisi and the Gaza war, Trump’s plan, and Egypt’s counterrevolution:
Trump’s threat to cut off military aid to Egypt and Jordan is most likely to trigger protests from the US military-industrial complex, one of the most powerful lobbies in the country.
Already, US defense companies have underperformed their European and South Korean counterparts in the current global defense rally. Since Trump’s call for Europe to shoulder more of its own security and his pledge to cut Pentagon spending, major US defense firms have seen their stocks fall by 4%, while European defense stocks have risen nearly 40%. South Korea’s defense companies have also capitalized on increased European rearmament, with Hanwha Aerospace, in particular, experiencing a 70% rise in shares.
In all cases, the resettlement plan will not happen, and the aid will not be cut. Using the threats of displacement, Trump has cornered the Arab states to pay for Gaza’s reconstruction and ensure Hamas will not administer the Strip.
The 21 February Riyadh meeting, however, failed to yield an Arab consensus on Egypt’s proposed plan to counter Trump’s Gaza strategy, informed Egyptian sources told al-Ahram. Participants were divided on issues such as the timing of reconstruction, the future role of Hamas, and the management of Gaza’s security, leaving key elements of the plan unresolved.Israel’s opposition leader, Yair Lapid, speaking Tuesday at the neoconservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington DC, outlined a plan for post-Hamas Gaza that would place the territory under Egyptian guardianship for up to 15 years. The proposal calls for international debt relief for Cairo and the deployment of Egyptian troops, supported by Gulf forces, to establish conditions for self-governance and the total demilitarization of Gaza. Lapid emphasized Egypt’s strategic importance as a stabilizing regional force and the need for comprehensive reforms within the Palestinian Authority (PA), as well as US-led investment to support Gaza’s development.
Egypt rejected the proposal. Lapid, however, doubled down on his “simple and feasible plan” in a Haaretz Op-Ed on Friday.Ninety-seven Palestinian prisoners were handed over to Egypt via the Rafah Crossing early Thursday, to be deported to other countries.
Israel will not leave the Philadelphi Corridor in the Gaza Strip, an Israeli official said on Thursday, as Israeli and Qatari negotiating teams were dispatched to Cairo.
Two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Friday that an Israeli delegation in Cairo wanted to negotiate an extension of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal by an additional 42 days. The sources said that Hamas opposes the extension and insists on proceeding to the second phase of the agreement as initially agreed.
The Israeli delegation left Cairo without progress in the negotiations.The WSJ reported on Friday:
Egypt also wants Hamas and other Palestinian factions to hand over missiles and rockets that could be used to attack Israel, said Egyptian officials and other people familiar with the talks. The arms would be stored at depots under Egyptian and European supervision until a Palestinian state is established, they said. But Hamas’s senior negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, categorically refused the proposal during a meeting with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad, in February, Egyptian and Hamas officials said.
On Saturday, FM Badr Abdelatty discussed with Palestinian PM (and FM) Mohamed Mostafa Egypt’s program for training the PA’s security force that will police Gaza.
Israel announced yesterday that it endorsed a temporary extension of the Gaza truce proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff, covering Ramadan and Passover. The first phase of the ceasefire concluded over the weekend, and the second phase remains uncertain amid unresolved negotiations on hostages and the humanitarian crisis. Hamas insists the second phase must proceed following Israel’s approval of the interim measure.
FM Abdelatty said yesterday the Egyptian Gaza reconstruction plan, that ensures Palestinians remain in their land, is ready and will be presented to the emergency Arab summit on 4 March.
The Israeli army is not preparing for a surprise Egyptian attack, because such a scenario does not exist, the commander of the 80th Military Division said yesterday. The division is responsible for covering Israel’s border with Egypt.